Doba spiritualnih mašina

Doba spiritualnih mašina je knjiga futuriste Ray Kurzweil-a. Ujedno je i studija koncepta tehnološke singularnosti.


2019

$1,000 lični računar ima snagu kao ljudski mozak.


2029

$1,000 lični računar ima 1,000 puta veću snagu od ljudskog mozga.

2099

Mašine su dostigle jednak legalni status sa ljudima.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Spiritual_Machines


Our Lady Peace - The Wonderful Future -Spiritual Machines

Spiritual Machines is the fourth studio album by the Canadian alternative rock band Our Lady Peace

Konceptualna interpretacija tehnološke singularnosti.




Šta mislite o tome? Ili...mislite o tome dok još uvek možete.

Cao! Ja sam Odinov usisivac. Nemam svoj nalog pa pisem sa njegovog.... tajno...
Meni su bas zanimljive tvoje teme i postovi, sve mogu da razumijem, a da se ne pregrijavam.
Moram sad ici. Samo nastavi tako, super si... Thumbs Up!

Odine...mator si da se igraš sa usisivačem. Nadji neku ženu, čak se i ti možeš nekoj svideti. Ne gubi nadu.

Njie to on, to je njegov usisivač. I verovatno ga Odin nije ni programirao, da radi tako kako radi, svugde da se zavlači...
Imaj razumevanja prema budućnosti. Nemoj biti ljut na advanced super-dooper technology.

Potpis

about:networking

What happens when machines become more intelligent than humans? One view is that this event
will be followed by an explosion to ever-greater levels of intelligence, as each generation of ma-
chines creates more intelligent machines in turn. This intelligence explosion is now often known
as the “singularity”.

The basic argument here was set out by the statistician I. J. Good in his 1965 article “Specula-
tions Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine”:

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the
intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one
of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better
machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion”, and the
intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is
the last invention that man need ever make.

The key idea is that a machine that is more intelligent than humans will be better than humans
at designing machines. So it will be capable of designing a machine more intelligent than the most
intelligent machine that humans can design. So if it is itself designed by humans, it will be capable
of designing a machine more intelligent than itself.

By similar reasoning, this next machine will also be capable of designing a machine more intelligent than itself. If every machine in turn does
what it is capable of, we should expect a sequence of ever more intelligent machines.2
This intelligence explosion is sometimes combined with another idea, which we might call the
“speed explosion”.

The argument for a speed explosion starts from the familiar observation that
computer processing speed doubles at regular intervals. Suppose that speed doubles every two
years and will do so indefinitely. Now suppose that we have human-level artificial intelligence
designing new processors. Then faster processing will lead to faster designers and an ever-faster
design cycle, leading to a limit point soon afterwards.


The argument for a speed explosion was set out by the artificial intelligence researcher Ray
Solomonoff in his 1985 article “The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence”.3Eliezer Yudkowsky
gives a succinct version of the argument in his 1996 article “Staring at the Singularity”:

“Computing speed doubles every two subjective years of work.

Two years after Artificial Intelligences reach human equivalence, their speed doubles. One year later,
their speed doubles again. Six months - three months - 1.5 months ... Singularity.”

The Argument for a Singularity

1. There will be AI+.
2. If there is AI+, there will be AI++.
—————-
3. There will be AI++

What happens with machines or what happens with humans?

Potpis

about:networking

2029

- A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain.
-The vast majority of computations originally done by humans are now done by computers.
- Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.


2099

-The human brain has been completely reverse engineered and all aspects of its functioning are understood.
- Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer minds.
- Machines have attained equal legal status with humans.
- Humans and machines merge together in the physical and mental realms. Cybernetic brain implants enable humans to fuse their minds with A.I.s.
- In consequence, clear distinctions between humans and machines no longer exist.

2099

-Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based.
-A.I.s frequently make "backup copies" of themselves, guaranteeing a sort of immortality should the original A.I. be killed.

Malo je ovaj momentalo zaostao, ne znam zasto nisi kopirao opis 2009-e godine?

The majority of text is generated with speech recognition software
Translating telephones (where each caller is speaking a different language) are commonplace
Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices
Tele-medicine is widely used, where the physician examines the patient at a distance with virtual reality

A što baš 2029 i 2099 ?
Što nije 2016 i 3111 ?

Jel' devetke u ovom slučaju imaju i versko značenje?

Ono, .. skynet/satana itd. ?

Potpis

about:networking

Some of Kurzweil's predictions for 2009 have not been borne out as of 2010.[2] For example, Kurzweil did not foresee the global recession that began in late 2007, instead predicting that "[d]espite occasional corrections, the ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion and prosperity due to the dominance of the knowledge content of products and services."

Kurzweil maintains, however, that of the 108 predictions for 2009, 102 have been shown to be "essentially correct" as of 2010.[2]

published in 1999...

.. minut nakon što je švarceneger pobedio princa tame u sred crkve, baš te godine!!!

Potpis

about:networking

Samo na filmu ! Na nasu srecu !

Vecina Ideja, bazira se na tehnoloskom procvatu zadnjih 100 godina . Medjutim u zadnjih 20 godina primetno je zagusenje i opadanje istih .
Slucajno ili namerno ,kao polazna tacka uzimaju se ogromne baze na mesecu u kojima ce se radjati ziveti i umirati upravo ljudi . A to se po sadasnjem tempu procvata, desavati tek u 2200 godini i dalje .

To nije film, nego studija koncepta tehnološke singularnosti.

Ispada da su na Wikipediji od tih 108 naveli bas ono sto ne valja...

Potpis

Sedam sutlijasa,
za sedam samuraja,
za sedam tramvaja.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#Predictions


The Age of Intelligent Machines

Kurzweil's first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, presented his ideas about the future. It was written from 1986 to 1989 and published in 1990. Building on Ithiel de Sola Pool's "Technologies of Freedom" (1983), Kurzweil claims to have forecast the demise of the Soviet Union due to new technologies such as cellular phones and fax machines disempowering authoritarian governments by removing state control over the flow of information.

In the book Kurzweil also extrapolated preexisting trends in the improvement of computer chess software performance to predict correctly that computers would beat the best human players by 1998, and most likely in that year. In fact, the event occurred in May 1997 when chess World Champion Garry Kasparov was defeated by IBM's Deep Blue computer in a well-publicized chess tournament. Perhaps most significantly, Kurzweil foresaw the explosive growth in worldwide Internet use that began in the 1990s. At the time of the publication of The Age of Intelligent Machines, there were only 2.6 million Internet users in the world,[43] and the medium was unreliable, difficult to use, and deficient in content.

Bill Joy, cofounder of Sun Microsystems, agrees with Kurzweil's timeline of future progress, but thinks that technologies such as AI, nanotechnology and advanced biotechnology will create a dystopian world.


A dystopia is the idea of a society in a repressive and controlled state, often under the guise of being utopian

šta ako je Bill Joy u pravu. Dystopia, bajo. Kontrolisaće nas televizori i veš mašine.

A sad kao ne kontrolišu?

E da znas da si u pravu! Sad cu da izvadim bejzbol palicu ispod kreveta i ima da izlupam i televizor i kompijutera! Da im dam unapred malo, pa posle nek rade sta hoce.

A usisivači?