France and Germany exit recession

vladd
Logicno je da vazi na prosli kvartal, prosla godina ne postoji, odnosno malo znaci.

Nemci i Francuzi su uradili bukvalno sve da odreaguju na krizu, i smanjili uvoz i stimulisali domacu proizvodnju, i podelili otkaze, i regulisali kamate i ponudili gradjanima beneficije.

In the three months to June, each recorded a 0.3 per cent rise in gross domestic product (GDP), confounding economists’ expectations. In the three months to March, Germany had contracted by 3.5 per cent and France by 1.2 per cent

DaliborP
Dimkovic kaze da nezaposlenost nema veze sa tim ni u kom slucaju, pa makar doguralo na 30%.

Ivan Dimkovic:
Jednostavno u poslednjh 3 meseca se desilo jako puno pozitivnih ekonomskih stvari.

A Kina, koliko je meni poznato, nije ni imala negativnu stopu rasta GDP-a. Nije +12, nego, negde 7-8%, ali je daleko iznad 0.

Kakve sad oni imaju veze sa -4% p.a De i tih famoznih +0.3 u drugom kvartalu?

According to China's customs bureau, exports in July declined a staggering 23% from a year ago. This number is apocalyptic, yet on paper China's GDP keeps soaring. How can an export driven mega-economy experience significant growth simultaneously with its core export sector undergoing a free fall contraction? By flooding the economy with liquidity through monetary easing, it would appear. However, this is not a recipe for long-term, sustained growth.

Officially, the Chinese government is still forecasting 8% growth for 2009, down from last year’s 10.6%, but still a remarkably strong performance given the plunge in exports, a key growth driver in the past. But there’s mounting evidence that China’s long cherished goal of on the back of local consumption. Take the auto market. At the beginning of the year the industry association was predicting a contraction in auto sales on the back of an anemic (for China) 6.7% growth last year. Instead, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on July 7 reported a whopping 17.7% increase in sales to 6.1 million vehicles, and is predicting this year’s sales could even top 12 million. For instance, General Motors sales through its joint ventures rose 38% in the first half to 814,442 vehicles.

The strength of the property sector has been another big surprise. Property sales were up 53% in the first six months from a year earlier, according to a survey commissioned by the statistics bureau and published in the China Information News, while nationwide prices averaged across 70 cities climbed year on year in June. This masks the fact that in second and third cities prices have been strengthening much more. Property normally accounts for about 25% of fixed asset investment in China and is a key form of wealth holding for most Chinese. Optimism about housing prices will translate into greater consumer confidence.

However China’s stimulus efforts still carry risks. New lending was up a whopping 201% during the first half of more than $1 trillion, equal to nearly one quarter of GDP, part of the reason why the Shanghai stock market is up nearly 75% this year