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The Europe Union as we know it will fall apart, Germany’s economy is hostage to its trade partners, the US will make Poland a leading European power and Russia won’t survive, according to private geopolitical intelligence and advisory firm Stratfor Global Intelligence in its Decade Forecast: 2015-2025. The report has been published every five years since 1996 (1996, 2000, 2005, 2010 and now, 2015).

“The European Union will never return to its previous unity, and if it survives it will operate in a more limited and fragmented way in the next decade,” Stratfor predicts. “We do not expect the free trade zone to continue to operate without increasing protectionism. We expect Germany to suffer severe economic reversals in the next decade and Poland to increase its regional power as a result,” the report continues.
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Referenced in this article:

Decade Forecast: 2015-2025, Stratfor.com; 26 February 2015.

First, the European Union entered a crisis that it could not solve and that has increased in intensity. We predict that the European Union will never return to its previous unity, and if it survives it will operate in a more limited and fragmented way in the next decade. We do not expect the free trade zone to continue to operate without increasing protectionism. We expect Germany to suffer severe economic reversals in the next decade and Poland to increase its regional power as a result.

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Europe

The European Union will be unable to solve its fundamental problem, which is not the eurozone, but the free trade zone. Germany is the center of gravity of the European Union; it exports more than 50 percent of its GDP, and half of that goes to other EU countries. Germany has created a productive capability that vastly outstrips its ability to consume, even if the domestic economy were stimulated. It depends on these exports to maintain economic growth, full employment and social stability. The European Union's structures — including the pricing of the euro and many European regulations — are designed to facilitate this export dependency.

This has already fragmented Europe into at least two parts. Mediterranean Europe and countries such as Germany and Austria have completely different behavioral patterns and needs. No single policy can suit all of Europe. This has been the core problem from the beginning, but it has now reached an extreme point. What benefits one part of Europe harms another.

Nationalism has already risen significantly. Compounding this is the Ukrainian crisis and Eastern European countries' focus on the perceived threat from Russia. Eastern Europe's concern about Russia creates yet another Europe — four, total, if we separate the United Kingdom and Scandinavia from the rest of Europe. Considered with the rise of Euroskeptic parties on the right and left, the growing delegitimation of mainstream parties and the surging popularity of separatist parties within European countries, the fragmentation and nationalism that we forecast in 2005, and before, is clearly evident.

These trends will continue. The European Union might survive in some sense, but European economic, political and military relations will be governed primarily by bilateral or limited multilateral relationships that will be small in scope and not binding. Some states might maintain a residual membership in a highly modified European Union, but this will not define Europe.

What will define Europe in the next decade is the re-emergence of the nation-state as the primary political vehicle of the continent. Indeed the number of nation-states will likely increase as various movements favoring secession, or the dissolution of states into constituent parts, increase their power. This will be particularly noticeable during the next few years, as economic and political pressures intensify amid Europe's crisis.

Germany has emerged from this mass of nation-states as the most economically and politically influential. Yet Germany is also extremely vulnerable. It is the world's fourth-largest economic power, but it has achieved that status by depending on exports. Export powers have a built-in vulnerability: They depend on their customers' desire and ability to buy their products. In other words, Germany's economy is hostage to the economic well-being and competitive environment in which it operates.

There are multiple forces working against Germany in this regard. First, Europe's increasing nationalism will lead to protectionist capital and labor markets. Weaker countries are likely to adopt various sorts of capital controls, while stronger countries will limit the movement of foreigners — including the citizens of other EU countries — across their borders. We forecast that existing protectionist policies inside the European Union, particularly on agriculture, will be supplemented in coming years by trade barriers created by the weaker Southern European economies that need to rebuild their economic base after the current depression. On a global basis, we can expect European exports to face increased competition and highly variable demand in the uncertain environment. Therefore, our forecast is that Germany will begin an extended economic decline that will lead to a domestic social and political crisis and that will reduce Germany's influence in Europe during the next 10 years.

At the center of economic growth and increasing political influence will be Poland. Poland has maintained one of the most impressive growth profiles outside of Germany and Austria. In addition, though its population is likely to contract, the contraction will most probably be far less than in other European countries. As Germany undergoes wrenching shifts in economy and population, Poland will diversify its own trade relationships to emerge as the dominant power on the strategic Northern European Plain. Moreover, we expect Poland to be the leader of an anti-Russia coalition that would, significantly, include Romania during the first half of this decade. In the second half of the decade, this alliance will play a major role in reshaping the Russian borderlands and retrieving lost territories through informal and formal means. Eventually as Moscow weakens, this alliance will become the dominant influence not only in Belarus and Ukraine, but also farther east. This will further enhance Poland's and its allies' economic and political position.

Poland will benefit from having a strategic partnership with the United States. Whenever a leading global power enters into a relationship with a strategic partner, it is in the global power's interest to make the partner as economically vigorous as possible, both to stabilize its society and to make it capable of building a military force. Poland will be in that position with the United States, as will Romania. Washington has made its interest in the region obvious.

Otto23
Ko veruje da je EU nesto vishe od golog interesa vodecih zemlja

Otto23: Stanje i jeste prilicno jasno. Dakle, ako se uradi presek tog stanja, moguca su dva razvoja:

1) Dodatno ujedinjavanje u super drzavu, sa prebacivanjem dela drzavnih ingerencija na zajednicka EU tala
ili
2) Slabljenje vec postojecih veza, gde ce svaka clanica ni manje ni vishe gurati ono sto joj najvishe odgovara - pa shodno svojoj snazi i mogucnostima uspeti da nametne nesto svoje u vecoj ili manjoj meri, sto ce opet proizvesti kontra reakciju neke druge strane... i tako polako vracanje na pocetak (neki vid politicko/ekonomske/vojne saradnje sto totalno nezavisnih, sto delimicno nezavisnih pojedinacnih drzava (razni modaliteti saveza), ali vrlo daleko od konzistentnog tela i super drzave (ala USA), sa jednistvenim misljenjem i pravcem).

Sta mislite da je realnije, 1 ili 2? :)


P.S. Regresija, bato. Tj. "stvar" je u problemu :).
Ali, sto da ne, mozemo da se pravimo blesavi, i zapevamo: kuce su od cokolade, a prozori od marmelade...

niki212:
Evo kako se bori za svoju stvar

Vašington je za prethodne dve godine isporučio Ukrajini vojnu opremu u vrednosti od preko 266 miliona dolara, izjavio je ambasador SAD u Ukrajini DžN
Pored vojne opreme, rekao je on, u tu sumu uključene su i pripreme vojnika, koje su američke snage sprovodile u Ukrajini.
„Počev od 2014. godine isporučili smo opremu i pripremili vojnike kako bi pomogli ukrajinskoj vojsci da što bolje kontroliše bezbednost svojih granica. Cilj je da Ukrajina što bolje štiti nacionalni suverenitet“, rekao je on.
Prethodno je iz Bele kuće saopšteno da je američki predsednik Barak Obama potpisao budžet za 2016. godinu, u kojoj je za bezbednost Ukrajine izdvojeno oko 300 miliona dolara, ukoliko administracija tako nešto bude smatrala potrebnim.
Ubrzo zatim, ukrajinska ambasada u SAD saopštila je da je Vašington povećao budžet na 658 miliona dolara.